Which Way Will the World Turn?

From left: Dale Copeland, John Owen and Jeff Legro

A few times each year, a trio of noted U.Va. Politics professors trade their tweed jackets and highlighters for cloaks and daggers as they are spirited away in the dark of night, taken up Route 29 and escorted to a boardroom where they spill everything they know to the government.

OK, so it’s not quite like that. The reality is that Dale Copeland, John Owen and Department Chair Jeff Legro pile into a car in broad daylight and drive themselves to DC, where they join a group of hand-picked, highly-esteemed politics and international relations professors brought together by the National Intelligence Council. The group, called the National Intelligence Council Study Group on Strategic Responses to American Pre-Eminence, was started by Princeton’s John Ikenberry in 2002.

“He is a leading thinker on hegemony or predominance and what it means,” said John Owen of Ikenberry. “One of the puzzles he was looking at was why does American predominance in the world persist?” The search for answers to this puzzle led to an NIC grant, and to the formation of this group.

Dale Copeland was the first of the “U.Va. Three” to come aboard, tapped by Ikenberry to join in 2002.”It was largely driven by where the country was going now that the Soviet Union was no more, and it seemed quite clear that the U.S. would be the dominant state in the world for some time. So it was being driven by the larger issues of geopolitics for the next 20-to-30 years.”

He was later joined by Owen and then Legro, making U.Va. the only institution to boast more than two participants in the approximately 15 member group.

 “The point is they are trying to get people with different views of world politics,” Legro said, “and it so happens that John, Dale and I view the world differently so we all bring something different to the table.”

Each time the group comes to that table, they tackle a different pre-arranged topic in a two-to-two-and-a-half hour session. The topics can range from the rise of East Asia to the role of Russia in the New World Order to the effects of Muslim immigration on European security, among many others.

The sessions, which including both the assembled experts, NIC personnel and the occasional topic-specific guest speaker, usually feature some 30 participants overall. However, Copeland said, it is usually the professors that do most of the talking. “Often the NIC people will be working on a paper and will present stuff to us that will eventually be part of a declassified report about, say, the next 20 years of U.S. policy. So it is essentially a vetting process for them. They are looking for feedback from the professors before they put it out there.”

Legro is quick to point out that the group’s role is to share information rather than drive policy. “It’s not about us telling them what the U.S. should do—we talk about the future of the world, what drives world politics, what drives countries to do what they do and what the responses of others are likely to be.”

Owen points to China as an example. “As China gains power and the ability to change international politics, is it going to continue with its current trading policies that allow for the free movement of capital … the sort of order the U.S. has sponsored with Japan for decades? Or does China have different ideas and what will that mean 15-20 years from now? Might they exclude the U.S.? Might they be trying to build a trading block that keeps us out?”

The participants said they find the sessions are rewarding in a variety of ways. “Most of these are questions with no definitive answers,” Legro said, “and you can gain greater insight when you hear people around the table talking. It can get you thinking about things you might want to work on, and it can be very energizing for your teaching.”

Owen added that he feels the process is important. “I feel good about participating. It is not like we are giving political advice or saving the republic, but it is part of a very large process that I think is a good one.”

And while direct advice-giving may not be part of the picture, Copeland points out that the group can play an important role. “I think our direct impact is shaping some of the ways people in the intelligence community think about their daily questions, and perhaps the way they present their own material to their higher-ups. And since the NIC is a long-term planning group, if we can have an impact down the road, then that would be great.”